Does the Senate pass the CLARITY Act?
Will the U.S. Senate pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) or a successor crypto market-structure bill by a floor vote?
Flat at the bottom — the pre-recess floor calendar is nearly gone, and even commentary defending prediction markets' usefulness on this bill is now warning not to read too much into their current low readings
The bull case is now almost entirely about next Congress: Tillis's motion to reconsider is unwithdrawn, and Treasury's Pettit previously declined to call the bill dead. The bear case is that the Senate recesses around Oct 5 with no re-vote scheduled, financial press has moved on to describing the SEC/CFTC's own Regulation Crypto Assets push as the practical substitute, and this bill's own prediction-market history (an 82%-to-12% round trip already) is cited as a reason not to trust any near-term rebound in the odds.
No fixed date · Senate floor vote — no scheduled date; cloture failed Sept 15, and a Tillis motion to reconsider keeps the bill technically alive with no new vote scheduled
Still no new floor action, and the calendar itself is now the story: with Congress recessing ahead of the midterms around Oct 5, commentary agrees a rapid re-vote in the shrinking pre-recess window is the only way this moves before 2027. A second Sept 24 Motley Fool piece — this one auditing prediction markets' own track record on the bill — notes Polymarket swung from 82% in February to 12% in early September to a brief 30% bounce on Sept 14 before the Sept 15 cloture failure proved all of it wrong, and now frames the markets still pricing enactment odds as 'a sentiment gauge,' not a forecast. Tillis's motion to reconsider remains technically unwithdrawn, but no new text, whip count, or vote request has surfaced in over a week.
The Senate either passes the bill on a floor vote or it doesn't — a discrete legislative action with no scheduled date, since the timing of any vote is entirely at the Majority Leader's discretion.
Researched Sep 25, 2026 · tracked since Aug 12, 2026 · 33 readings
25% Aug 12, 20263% Sep 25, 2026
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The Senate passes itthis is “yes”
The White House signs off on Tillis-Gallego ethics language, the stablecoin-yield fight gets a narrow carve-out, and Thune finds 60 votes in the two-to-three weeks available after Sept 14 — delivering the regulatory clarity crypto has lobbied years for.
Long
COIN Coinbase GlobalThe single name most directly levered to a functioning US market-structure framework — institutional flows are the thesis.
Long
CRCL Circle Internet GroupStablecoin issuer whose yield-payment ability is one of the two provisions actually holding up the bill.
Long
IBIT iShares Bitcoin TrustDirect crypto-price proxy; regulatory clarity has repeatedly moved crypto prices on its own in 2026.
Short
KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETFThe offsetting leg — regional banks are exposed if yield-bearing stablecoins start pulling deposits, exactly what the banking lobby is fighting.
Short
KBE SPDR S&P Bank ETFA second, broader bank basket including money-center names also exposed to the deposit-competition risk.
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WAL Western Alliance BancorpA single regional lender with above-average deposit-cost sensitivity — the levered version of the KRE trade.
Worth knowing: Senate passage isn't enactment — a House-Senate conference and a presidential signature still stand between this and becoming law, and both Galaxy and Polymarket now treat this as a clear underdog outcome.
It stalls again
Ethics-provision gridlock, unresolved stablecoin-yield objections, a new AI-sandbox coalition fight, and a compressed pre-midterm floor calendar mean the bill dies with this Congress and crypto stays under the current fragmented SEC/CFTC regime.
Short
COIN Coinbase GlobalThe single name most directly levered to a functioning US market-structure framework — institutional flows are the thesis.
Short
CRCL Circle Internet GroupStablecoin issuer whose yield-payment ability is one of the two provisions actually holding up the bill.
Short
IBIT iShares Bitcoin TrustDirect crypto-price proxy; regulatory clarity has repeatedly moved crypto prices on its own in 2026.
Long
KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETFThe offsetting leg — regional banks are exposed if yield-bearing stablecoins start pulling deposits, exactly what the banking lobby is fighting.
Long
KBE SPDR S&P Bank ETFA second, broader bank basket including money-center names also exposed to the deposit-competition risk.
Long
WAL Western Alliance BancorpA single regional lender with above-average deposit-cost sensitivity — the levered version of the KRE trade.
Worth knowing: Prices already reflect a low probability (roughly 10-16% across trackers) — a 'no' outcome may already be mostly in the tape, so the asymmetric trade is in the timing and size of any relief rally if it does move, not in shorting a foregone conclusion.
35 sources, leaning both ways
- noThe Motley Fool — Prediction Markets Thought the Clarity Act Was Going to Pass, But Got It Completely Wrong. Here's the Best Way to Use Prediction Market Data.Sept 24: traces Polymarket's CLARITY odds from 82% (Feb) to 12% (early Sept) to a brief 30% bounce (Sept 14) that the Sept 15 cloture failure then invalidated; argues 'passage in 2026 looks very, very slim' and that current low odds should be read as sentiment, not forecast.
- noNPR — Crypto suffers major defeat as Senate rejects Clarity ActConfirms the 49-50 cloture vote and reports that, absent a rapid re-vote before Congress recesses around Oct 5, market-structure legislation likely slips to 2027 — the specific calendar mechanism behind the flat, near-zero probability.
- noThe Motley Fool — The Clarity Act Fails to Pass in Senate. Here's the Most Likely Scenario for the Crypto Industry in 2027.Sept 24: frames a lame-duck retry as technically possible but unlikely, cites prediction markets at roughly 6% for passage before next year, and argues SEC/CFTC administrative rulemaking will likely 'craft the rules of the road' regardless of whether Clarity ever passes.
- noCoinDesk — Crypto market structure can't wait for shot at post-election Clarity Act surge: White HouseSept 22: White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt and Treasury's Luke Pettit tell a CoinDesk policy event the lame-duck session doesn't offer enough hope for CLARITY; Pettit says 'the focus is shifted to the administration' though he stops short of calling the bill dead.
- noDL News — Crypto industry bets on SEC in 2026 as market structure bill slows to a crawlConfirms the industry's own pivot toward SEC Chair Atkins's Project Crypto rulemaking as the more realistic near-term path while the legislative track stalls.
- noUnnamed outlet (via search aggregation) — House cancels Sept 21/28 voting weeks, CLARITY effectively dead for 2026Confirms House GOP leadership canceled the chamber's Sept 21 and Sept 28 voting weeks, leaving no realistic floor window for CLARITY before the midterms even if the Senate acted.
- noGizmodo — Trump's Apparent Crypto Conflicts Could Sink the CLARITY ActFrames Trump's own crypto financial holdings as a standing obstacle to the ethics-provision compromise Democrats are demanding — the same unresolved fault line that sank the Sept 15 cloture vote, with no sign of movement since.
- mixedGovInfo — H.R. 3633, Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Reported in Senate)Primary source — bill text and status; reported in the Senate Banking Committee June 1, 2026, sponsored by Sen. Tim Scott.
- mixedCryptoNews — CLARITY Act Senate Vote: Can It Clear 60 Votes?Details the new bipartisan proposal sent to the White House requiring officials to divest crypto holdings over $1M or 10% of a company's value — the freshest development on the ethics front.
- noPolymarket — Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Checked Sept 15: contract fell to roughly 11-18% Tuesday afternoon, down from the high-20s/low-30s Monday, after Democrats rejected the GOP's Sunday text as their counterproposal; measures full enactment, a higher bar than Senate passage alone.
- noCryptoWisser — CLARITY Act's Crypto Odds Sink to 18% After Democrats Reject DealSept 15: Democrats rejected the GOP's 126-change revised text and sent their own counterproposal hours before cloture, still objecting that state AGs can't sue the president directly over crypto conflicts; prediction-market odds fell to 18% from 35% after Sunday's GOP offer.
- noCoinDesk — Live updates: Bitcoin slides from nearly $80,000 as Senate votes on Clarity ActSept 15 final update: confirms the 49-50 cloture failure, with zero Democrats voting yes and four Republicans voting no; Bitcoin down to $75,750-76,350, Coinbase -6.7%, Circle -8% on the vote plus the expected Fed hike.
- mixedThe Currency Analytics — CLARITY Act Falls 49-50 but Tillis Pushes for Second Senate VoteSept 16: Tillis's motion to reconsider 'keeps the legislation technically alive,' but legal commentators are split — one calls it 'a delay rather than a final verdict,' another says 'the next Congress is probably the more realistic window' with Polymarket's law-in-2026 odds down to 5%.
- no24/7 Wall St — XRP Drops 9% to $1.28 as the CLARITY Act Fails: What's Next for the Coin That Needed It Most?Sept 16: quantifies the morning-after crypto selloff and frames the cloture failure as 'ending crypto's market-structure push for 2026' given the compressed pre-midterm floor calendar.
- mixedThe Block — Where the Clarity Act stands ahead of Tuesday's Senate voteSept 14: TD Cowen's Washington Research Group put enactment odds at 25%; Republicans Collins and Cornyn were 'seemingly undecided'; Sen. Mark Warner said there's 'some movement' but 'the ethics provision is [not] near enough.'
- noAsianet Newsable — CLARITY Act Faces Setback: Thom Tillis Reportedly Warns Bill Could Fail Without White House Ethics DealSept 10-11: two Democratic aides say there has been little movement on the key Democratic ethics demand, even as the White House pushes back publicly — the gap the Sept 12 concession closed, at least on paper.
- yesCryptoTimes — Senate Unveils Final CLARITY Act Text With Trump-Backed Ethics Deal Ahead of Tuesday Cloture VoteSept 14: final Senate text incorporates roughly 80% of the Tillis-Gallego ethics counterproposal, with DOJ and state-AG enforcement of the ethics rules — the most concrete pre-vote concession of the process so far.
- no24/7 Wall St — Will the CLARITY Act Pass on Tuesday? Senate Democrats Meet Tonight and Republicans Need Nine of ThemSept 13: Schumer convenes the Democratic caucus with no public readout; 'about a dozen Democrats have negotiated on the bill for months, and not enough of them have publicly committed to guarantee the 60 votes' as of Friday's count. Cites Galaxy Research cutting its enactment odds to 30% from 50%.
- noDeFi Rate — CLARITY Act updates: Sept. 15 Senate vote, odds of passing at 24%-26%Sept 13-14: Gillibrand says she won't support market-structure legislation without an enforceable ban on presidents and senior officials profiting from crypto; Gallego says the White House hasn't given a point-by-point response to his and Tillis's ethics language — the two clearest live holdouts one day before cloture.
- mixedBitcoin.com News — Republican Senators Say CLARITY Act Passage Odds Aren't Looking GoodSept 10-11: reports the White House spokesperson statement that Trump wants Congress to pass the bill and that the administration has already agreed to a 'wide-ranging ethics provision' — the most direct rebuttal yet to Tillis and Rounds's pessimism, alongside NSA's shift from opposition to neutral ahead of the Sept 15 vote.
- noCoinspeaker — CLARITY Act: Lummis Warns of 2030 DelaySept 6: Sen. Cynthia Lummis posts that failure at cloture likely pushes the next realistic shot at crypto market-structure legislation to 2030 given the midterm calendar — raises the stakes of a 'no' without changing the odds.
- noCryptoTimes — CLARITY Act Faces New Uncertainty as Senate Ethics Talks StagnateSept 8: Tillis says the bill is 'likely doomed' absent White House movement on ethics language and Rounds says prospects 'do not look good' — the freshest and most pessimistic on-record read from the bill's own negotiators, six days before cloture.
- yesCoinDesk — White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealJuly 21: earlier reporting that the White House had reached agreement on ethics-provision language; Techtimes reported Democrats disputed having seen final text, and Sept 8 comments from Tillis/Rounds show the underlying dispute never actually closed.
- noBitcoin Foundation — CLARITY Act Hits September 15 DeadlineConfirms Republicans hold 53 seats but are expected to lose Sens. Hawley and Paul on cloture, meaning at least eight Democratic or independent votes are needed to reach 60 — a more precise vote count than earlier coverage offered.
- noCNBC — Crypto enters September with legislative policy gamble hanging by a threadSept 1: frames the Sept 15 cloture vote as the industry's last realistic shot this year, with the compressed post-vote legislative calendar (14 or fewer working days before midterm politics dominate) cited as the reason even a positive cloture result may not be enough.
- noCCN — CLARITY Act Countdown Begins: Sept. 15 Vote Looms as Odds Fall to 19.5%Reports odds falling as low as 15.5% before a partial bounce to 19.5% ahead of the Sept 15 cloture vote — corroborates the Polymarket drop from an independent angle.
- yesYahoo Finance — The U.S. Senate Faces a Critical Vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Says It Will PassArmstrong's public prediction that the bill passes — a notably more bullish read than where the prediction market has settled.
- noABA Banking Journal — Senate adjourns with no vote on Clarity ActConfirms the Aug 8 adjournment without a vote and the Sept 15 cloture date now on the calendar; documents banking-lobby opposition to stablecoin-yield provisions.
- noYahoo Finance — Senate Democrats Block Path to 60 Votes on CLARITY Act Before August RecessConfirms Senate Democrats' internal consensus to withhold cloture votes absent visible progress on ethics enforcement, illicit financing and other disputes, and that a revised ethics proposal has sat unanswered at the White House for over a week — the specific mechanism behind the flat probability.
- noJURIST — Coalition pushes US Senate to remove AI sandbox provisions from CLARITY Act78 civil-rights, labor and consumer groups' July 31 letter opposing the bill's AI Innovation Labs sandbox — a third front alongside ethics and stablecoin yield.
- yesDisruption Banking — CLARITY Act News: The Crypto Bill Just Slipped to a September 15 Senate ShowdownFrames the Sept 15 cloture vote as a real, near-term showdown rather than a bill that has quietly died — the case for treating this as still live.
- mixedCoinGape — CLARITY Act Eyes Second Chance At Senate Cloture Vote As Surprising Details UnfoldSept 16: details Tillis's yes-then-no vote switch used specifically to preserve his standing to file a motion to reconsider, and lays out the compressed pre-recess calendar (~11 working days) that makes a lame-duck Nov-Dec session the more realistic path than anything before Oct 1.
- noThe Currency Analytics — CLARITY Act Stalls at 8% Odds as Senate Cloture Vote Falls ShortSept 16: confirms Kalshi's passage-before-2027 contract at 8% after the cloture failure, framing the ethics-provision gap as the same unresolved sticking point across every version of the bill so far.
- noDeFi Rate — CLARITY Act updates: cloture fails 49-50, odds of passing at 7%-9%Checked Sept 20: Polymarket 6.3-6.7% and Kalshi 7.5-9.8% on enactment by year-end; seven Democratic senators reaffirmed Sept 17 they remain 'committed to bipartisan work' but announced no new vote or revised text, and no lame-duck strategy has been publicly laid out.
- noYahoo Finance — How the Clarity Act's Defeat Handed the SEC and CFTC the Wheel on CryptoFrames the Sept 15 cloture failure as having shifted the center of gravity from Congress to the regulators for the remainder of 2026 — the clearest 'this is over for now' read since the vote.