Does the Fed hike again at the October FOMC?
Will the FOMC raise its target rate at the October 2026 meeting (Oct 27-28)?
Holding near this week's highs — the Barr/CPI-driven repricing has stuck for a second day with no new data to challenge it, but the two intervening jobs and inflation prints are still capable of reversing it before the Oct 27-28 decision
The hawkish case: Barr explicitly put a further hike in his 'base case,' Williams calls another 2026 increase 'reasonable,' 16 of 18 dots pencil in more hikes this year, and both CME FedWatch (77.5%) and Polymarket (64.5%) now clearly favor an October move. The dovish case: Williams deliberately declined to name October over December, the Fed has never hiked back-to-back meetings under a post-2011 chair without a clear shock event, two more data prints (payrolls, CPI) land before the decision and could easily reverse this move, and Peterson Institute's Adam Posen still argues the committee prefers a cleaner post-midterm December hike.
Resolves Oct 28, 2026 · October FOMC decision
The Sept 23-24 repricing has held rather than reversed: CME FedWatch's implied October hike probability sat at roughly 73.5% as of Sept 24-25, consistent with the post-Barr, post-CPI jump from the low-50s earlier in the week rather than a further move. No new Fed speakers or data releases landed today to move the needle either way — the next scheduled catalysts remain nonfarm payrolls (Oct 2) and September CPI (Oct 14), both still more than a week out. Williams's Sept 24 comment that another 2026 hike is 'reasonable,' without naming October specifically, remains the most recent on-record Fed voice.
The FOMC either raises the target range a second consecutive time or holds at 3.75-4.00% — a discrete policy action decided on a published date.
Researched Sep 25, 2026 · tracked since Sep 17, 2026 · 7 readings
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The Fed hikes againthis is “yes”
September's dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year, Goldman Sachs flipped on Sept 17 to forecasting the next one lands in October rather than December, and Warsh explicitly declined to promise the Fed would skip a meeting.
Worth knowing: Cross-tracker odds for an October-specific hike run anywhere from 28% to the mid-40s depending on the venue — treat this as a real coin-flip-adjacent bet, not a near-lock the way September became by decision day.
The Fed holds in October
The Fed has never hiked at back-to-back meetings under a post-2011 chair without a clear shock event, Peterson Institute's Adam Posen argues waiting until December after the midterms lets the Fed avoid the appearance of political interference with cleaner data in hand, and October sits just days before the Nov 3 election.
Worth knowing: Warsh conspicuously refused to guide markets toward skipping October in his 30-minute press conference, and Goldman itself — one of the more credible desks on this question — flipped to forecasting an October hike on Sept 17, the day this topic opened.
14 sources, leaning both ways
- yesPhemex — Goldman Sachs Forecasts Additional Fed Rate Hike in OctoberSept 17: Goldman Sachs revises its outlook to pencil in 'one additional rate increase in October,' arguing tighter financial conditions persist longer than previously expected — a credible desk moving toward 'yes' the same day this topic opens.
- noTheStreet Pro — Why the Fed Isn't Likely to Wait Until OctoberSept 11: argues the Fed hikes in September rather than waiting, explicitly because 'October is even closer to the midterm elections than the upcoming meeting, making it a worse timing option' — the case for skipping October specifically in favor of December.
- noYahoo Finance — The market says a Fed rate hike is a done deal. Here's why it might hold steady.Sept 14: Peterson Institute's Adam Posen argues the Fed prefers to wait until December, when 'there'll be no question in anybody's mind — except perhaps the president's — that you have to raise' rates, avoiding the political optics of hiking days before the midterms.
- mixedMacroOdds — Fed Rate Hike Odds September 2026: Polymarket vs KalshiDistinguishes cumulative from per-meeting pricing: Kalshi's October-specific contract priced roughly a 28% chance of a hike at that meeting alone, well below Polymarket's cumulative 61.5%-by-October figure — the two venues measure different things, and neither is close to a settled consensus.
- mixedCNBC — Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes for the first time since 2023Sept 16: confirms the SEP dot plot showing 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike in 2026 (four see two), with Warsh's 30-minute press conference — the shortest since 2011 — giving no explicit guidance on which of the two remaining meetings gets it.
- mixedTech Insider — Fed October Rate Odds Swing as Traders Bet Warsh Holds After September HikeSept 17: Polymarket's October-decision contract priced 'no change' at just under 52%, up roughly nine points in 24 hours — still leaves a real hike case priced in, not a settled call either way.
- yesKuCoin — Probability of FED October Rate Hike Approaches 50%Sept 17: CME FedWatch's implied October hike probability climbed toward 50%, up from roughly 40% Wednesday morning, as markets digested Warsh's refusal to guide toward skipping the meeting.
- yesCME FedWatch ToolChecked Sept 20: implied October hike probability at roughly 59.7%, up from the high-40s two days earlier — the clearest single move of the week toward pricing a second consecutive hike.
- yesPolymarket — Fed Decision in October?Checked Sept 21: a 25bp hike priced at 53.5% versus 44.5% for no change — the per-meeting contract has crossed into hike-favored territory for the first time since the September decision.
- yesPhemex — Fed Rate Hike Probability Hits 54.2% for October MeetingChecked Sept 23: CME FedWatch shows a 54.2% probability of a 25bp October hike versus 45.8% for a hold — essentially flat versus the Sept 20-21 readings, confirming the plateau rather than continued climb.
- yesInvesting.com (Reuters) — Fed's Barr says future interest rate hikes 'likely' needed to tame inflationSept 23: Barr tells the Chicago Fed housing conference 'in my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed,' citing inflation still above target and not clearly trending toward it — the remark that triggered the day's repricing, with CME FedWatch jumping roughly 14 points the same day.
- mixedYahoo Finance (Reuters) — Fed's Williams says it is reasonable to see another US rate hike this yearSept 24: Williams calls another 2026 hike 'reasonable' but stops short of endorsing October specifically, saying the Fed needs more incoming data first — confirms the hawkish shift while withholding a commitment to the exact month.
- yesCME FedWatch ToolChecked Sept 24: implied October hike probability at 77.5%, up from roughly 53% on Sept 23 — the sharpest single-day move since this topic opened.
- mixedCME FedWatch ToolChecked Sept 25: implied October hike probability at roughly 73.5%, essentially flat versus the prior two days — the post-Barr/CPI repricing has held rather than extended further, with no new Fed speakers or data today.