Does the Fed hike at the September FOMC?
Will the FOMC raise its target rate at the September 2026 meeting?
Resolved Sep 16, 2026 · tracked from Jul 28, 2026
Final reading: 88% yes
Resolved yes. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023, with Chair Warsh saying inflation is 'too high and has been for too long.' The dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike in 2026 (four see two more), pointing to the Oct 28 or Dec 9-10 meeting as the next test. Consensus was directionally right and got the timing right too: Polymarket (88%), Kalshi (79%) and the Reuters economist poll (85%) had all converged into the high-80s/mid-80s by decision day, correctly riding the reversal from a 52% coin-flip on Sept 9 through the hot CPI/PPI prints and the Hormuz-driven energy shock. See the new 'fomc-october-2026' topic for the next live question this created.