Does Commerce tighten China chip export controls further?
Will Commerce further restrict advanced AI chip exports to China before year-end 2026, beyond the current H200/Blackwell licensing regime?
Paused Sep 7, 2026 · tracked from Jul 28, 2026
Last reading: 61% yes
Not resolved — moved to dormant purely to make room in active[] for a fresher question (the new Russia-Ukraine ceasefire topic). Probability had sat within a 2-point band (0.61-0.63) across its last five readings, and Sept 7 research found the same 'as early as September' drafting language that's been unconfirmed since late August, with no new filing, circulation date, or Moonshot-talks resolution surfacing. This is a quiet BIS rulemaking docket, not a dead one — it keeps its id and full history here and will move back to active the moment there's a published rule, a confirmed circulation date, or a material development in the underlying Moonshot/offshore-access dispute.