Does federal law preempt state control of prediction markets?
Will the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately hold that federal law (the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's jurisdiction) preempts state gambling regulation of sports-event prediction-market contracts, resolving the Third Circuit/Ninth Circuit split in favor of federal preemption rather than state authority?
Paused Sep 18, 2026 · tracked from Sep 3, 2026
Last reading: 53% yes
Not resolved — moved to dormant purely to make room in active[] for a fresher question (the new US-China tariff truce topic). Probability has sat within a 1-point band (0.52-0.53) across its last five-plus readings, and Sept 18 research found no material development: Kalshi's Ninth Circuit en banc petition and the three Supreme Court cert petitions (New Jersey, Robinhood, Crypto.com) all remain undecided, with no new ruling, grant, or denial surfacing. This is a slow docket, not a dead one — it keeps its id and full history here and will move back to active the moment the Ninth Circuit rules on rehearing or the Supreme Court acts on cert.