Does the US-Iran ceasefire hold?
Will an effective US-Iran ceasefire be in place by August 31, 2026?
Resolved Aug 31, 2026 · tracked from Jul 28, 2026
Final reading: 6% yes
Resolved no. The deadline this question was built around passed today with no effective ceasefire in place: the US military's Operation Epic Fury and Treasury's Operation Economic Outcast sanctions campaign are both still running, UKMTO rates Strait of Hormuz risk 'SEVERE,' and Iran's IRGC Navy and CENTCOM each claim to control the waterway. Consensus was directionally right for most of the question's life — it correctly rode the ceasefire's collapse from 80% in mid-August down to single digits — but the diplomatic track (Iran now drafting Hormuz-reopening conditions, Qatar's highest-level mediation visit yet) means the underlying uncertainty isn't gone, just re-dated: see the new open-ended 'us-iran-conflict-ceasefire' topic.